Weekly Market Summary – Week ending Sep 25th

Bond markets and inflation concerns dominated the week’s macroeconomic backdrop. U.S. Treasury yields climbed to levels not seen since 2007, with the 10-year yield moving above 5% and at times approaching 5.2%, while the 30-year yield rose toward 5.4%–5.5%. The selloff reflected stubborn inflation, high energy costs, robust activity, swelling public borrowing needs and expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to tighten policy further. Long-term mortgage rates rose to roughly 7% or more, increasing pressure on an already weak housing market. Home Depot reported softer traffic, while Realty Income and Agree Realty faced pressure.

Higher yields challenged equities. The Dow 30 recorded its weakest weekly performance since March, while the S&P 500 was roughly flat to modestly lower. The Nasdaq outperformed and touched fresh records during risk-on sessions, though Apple and Nvidia together represented more than 15% of the S&P 500. Brent crude moved above $105 per barrel before retreating toward $99–$100, while diesel prices reached record levels. Consumer sentiment fell to 48.1 in September; McDonald’s shares fell sharply after management acknowledged weaker traffic and U.S. comparable sales.

Global investment in AI infrastructure remained central to equity-market optimism. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle are collectively expected to deploy roughly $800 billion in AI-related capital expenditures in 2026, but concerns grew over more than $3 trillion in off-balance-sheet commitments. Oracle issued a force-majeure notice related to its planned Project Jupiter data-center campus, while reporting quarterly capital expenditures of $28.5 billion and negative free cash flow of $5.4 billion. Power availability emerged as a decisive constraint, and Advanced Micro Devices, Intel, Arm and Nvidia benefited from continued AI demand.

Meta’s Muse agent rose rapidly in Apple’s U.S. App Store rankings, but Amazon blocked Muse from completing purchases on its platform. President Trump and President Xi Jinping extended the U.S.-China trade truce to January 10, 2027, without resolving disputes over tariffs, export controls and advanced semiconductors. Novo Nordisk shares fell amid obesity-drug competition from Eli Lilly, while Berkshire Hathaway finalized its leadership transition.

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